The two numbers
On a team card you will see something like μ 28.40 · σ 2.10. Those Greek letters are just labels for two different jobs. One ranks the lineup. The other says how much we still have to learn.
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The rating
μ · Mu
Our current best guess at how strong this lineup is. Higher sits higher on the board. This is the number the standings are sorted by.
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The deviation
σ · Sigma
How much that guess might still move. A wide number means we have not seen this lineup enough. A tight number means the guess has settled.
The guess
Think of μ as the number you would write on a chalkboard if you had to pick one. Higher means stronger. After enough games, this is the number that should match the table you actually see on club night.
New lineups start around 25. Wins push it up. Losses pull it down. Beating a strong lineup moves it more than beating a weak one — and the other way around.
The wobble
A single ranking pretends we are equally sure about everyone. We are not. A pair that has played all season has a small σ — the guess has settled. A pair that formed last Tuesday has a large σ — they might be brilliant, or they had one lucky night.
High σ is not a penalty. It means give them a few more games. Low σ means this is about who they are.
Reading them together
The dot is the guess. The shaded band is the wobble. If a new pair sits above your veterans after one game, look at the band before you rewrite the club hierarchy. The board is allowed to be a little loud at the start. It quietens as people play.
Guess and wobble
A new lineup starts in the middle with a wide wobble. One good night is not a season.
A familiar pair with a tight band. We have seen them enough to trust the guess.
Lineups, not people
Dyst does not give a member a personal ranking. Skill lives on the roster that actually played — Alice and Carol as a pair is a different rating from Alice on her own. The μ and σ on the board belong to that lineup, not to the people in it.
What a match does
Scores become win, lose, or draw. An 11–1 and an 11–9 are the same for the rating. Only the lineups that played move; everyone else stays put. μ shifts based on who beat whom. σ usually shrinks a little — we learned something.
You do not need to run the algorithm. Record the match. The board updates.
At the club
When someone asks why a new pair is sitting above the regulars:
- 01
μ is the ranking. That is the number on the chalkboard.
- 02
σ is how unsure we still are. If it is still wide, they have not settled yet.
- 03
Play more games. The wobble shrinks as the table fills in.
Open a board tonight
Create an organisation, invite the table, record the first match. Pickup is free and billing is not live.